Aurora forecast Bismarck
Northern Lights tonight in Bismarck, ND
Updated
Unlikely tonight (Kp 1.3 forecast; needs about Kp 5 at Bismarck)
Will you see the northern lights from Bismarck, North Dakota, United States tonight? We combine NOAA's Kp forecast, the OVATION aurora model, cloud cover and the hours of darkness. Times are local (America/Chicago).
- Kp now
- 1.7 quiet, estimated
- Max Kp forecast tonight
- 1.3 quiet
- Kp needed at Bismarck
- about 5 geomagnetic latitude 54.7°
- Cloud cover tonight
- 90% average lowest 34%
- Dark sky
- 7:47 pm – 7:12 am Sun 12° below the horizon
- Aurora probability in view now
- 2% NOAA OVATION, 30–90 min ahead
- Moon
- 100% lit Full Moon
Tonight in Bismarck
Bismarck sits at a geomagnetic latitude of 54.7° N, so the aurora usually needs a Kp index of about 5 or higher before it rises above the northern horizon. Tonight's NOAA forecast peaks at Kp 1.3 (quiet) during the dark hours, 3.7 short of what Bismarck needs.
Open-Meteo expects about 90% cloud cover on average between 10 pm and 8 am local time, with no mostly clear hours.
The Moon is 100% illuminated (full moon), bright enough to wash out a faint aurora, so only a stronger display will stand out. For the best view look north, low on the horizon, from somewhere away from street lights.
Right now NOAA's OVATION model gives up to 2% chance of aurora in the part of the sky visible from Bismarck. OVATION is a short-range nowcast (30 to 90 minutes ahead), useful for deciding whether to step outside now.
| Local time | Kp forecast | Cloud cover | Aurora chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 10 pm | 1.3 | 100% | Unlikely |
| Sun 11 pm | 1.3 | 68% | Unlikely |
| Mon 12 am | 1.3 | 100% | Unlikely |
| Mon 1 am | 1.3 | 100% | Unlikely |
| Mon 2 am | 1.3 | 34% | Unlikely |
| Mon 3 am | 1.3 | 95% | Unlikely |
| Mon 4 am | 1.3 | 100% | Unlikely |
| Mon 5 am | 1.3 | 100% | Unlikely |
| Mon 6 am | 1.3 | 100% | Unlikely |
| Mon 7 am | 1.3 | 100% | Unlikely |
3-day Kp forecast
None of the next 3 days reaches the Kp 5 that Bismarck needs. Kp is a global 0–9 index of geomagnetic activity, issued in 3-hour blocks (UTC); NOAA forecasts beyond 24 hours are uncertain, because storms are triggered by solar eruptions that take 1–3 days to arrive.
| Day (UTC) | Max Kp | Level | Enough for Bismarck? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | 1.7 | quiet | No |
| 2026-10-27 | 1.7 | quiet | No |
| 2026-10-28 | 1.7 | quiet | No |
Why Bismarck needs Kp 5
The aurora forms in an oval around the geomagnetic pole, which sits in the Canadian Arctic (about 80.8° N, 72.8° W), not at the geographic pole. That is why North American cities see aurora further south than European cities at the same latitude. At Kp 0 the oval's edge is near 66° geomagnetic; each step of Kp pushes it roughly 2° toward the equator.
At 54.7° geomagnetic, Bismarck needs about Kp 5 for aurora low on the horizon, Kp 7 or more for a display high in the sky. Brandon, MB, 343 km away, needs about Kp 3.
Aurora forecast for nearby cities
More sky and weather
Data: NOAA SWPC (Kp, OVATION), Open-Meteo, GeoNames.