Aurora forecast Chernivtsi
Northern Lights tonight in Chernivtsi
Updated
Unlikely tonight (Kp 3 forecast; needs about Kp 9 at Chernivtsi)
Will you see the northern lights from Chernivtsi, Ukraine tonight? We combine NOAA's Kp forecast, the OVATION aurora model, cloud cover and the hours of darkness. Times are local (Europe/Kyiv).
- Kp now
- 2 quiet, estimated
- Max Kp forecast tonight
- 3 quiet
- Kp needed at Chernivtsi
- about 9 geomagnetic latitude 46.1°
- Cloud cover tonight
- 79% average lowest 42%
- Dark sky
- 6:21 pm – 5:46 am Sun 12° below the horizon
- Aurora probability in view now
- 0% NOAA OVATION, 30–90 min ahead
- Moon
- 100% lit Full Moon
Tonight in Chernivtsi
Chernivtsi sits at a geomagnetic latitude of 46.1° N, so the aurora usually needs a Kp index of about 9 or higher before it rises above the northern horizon. Tonight's NOAA forecast peaks at Kp 3 (quiet) during the dark hours, 6.0 short of what Chernivtsi needs.
Open-Meteo expects about 79% cloud cover on average between 10 pm and 6 am local time, with no mostly clear hours.
The Moon is 100% illuminated (full moon), bright enough to wash out a faint aurora, so only a stronger display will stand out. For the best view look north, low on the horizon, from somewhere away from street lights.
Right now NOAA's OVATION model gives up to 0% chance of aurora in the part of the sky visible from Chernivtsi. OVATION is a short-range nowcast (30 to 90 minutes ahead), useful for deciding whether to step outside now.
| Local time | Kp forecast | Cloud cover | Aurora chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 10 pm | 2 | 42% | Unlikely |
| Sun 11 pm | 2 | 63% | Unlikely |
| Mon 12 am | 2 | 81% | Unlikely |
| Mon 1 am | 2 | 80% | Unlikely |
| Mon 2 am | 3 | 83% | Unlikely |
| Mon 3 am | 3 | 100% | Unlikely |
| Mon 4 am | 3 | 100% | Unlikely |
| Mon 5 am | 2 | 85% | Unlikely |
3-day Kp forecast
None of the next 3 days reaches the Kp 9 that Chernivtsi needs. Kp is a global 0–9 index of geomagnetic activity, issued in 3-hour blocks (UTC); NOAA forecasts beyond 24 hours are uncertain, because storms are triggered by solar eruptions that take 1–3 days to arrive.
| Day (UTC) | Max Kp | Level | Enough for Chernivtsi? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | 2 | quiet | No |
| 2026-10-26 | 3 | quiet | No |
| 2026-10-27 | 1.7 | quiet | No |
Why Chernivtsi needs Kp 9
The aurora forms in an oval around the geomagnetic pole, which sits in the Canadian Arctic (about 80.8° N, 72.8° W), not at the geographic pole. That is why the Kp a city needs depends on its geomagnetic rather than its geographic latitude. At Kp 0 the oval's edge is near 66° geomagnetic; each step of Kp pushes it roughly 2° toward the equator.
At 46.1° geomagnetic, Chernivtsi needs about Kp 9 for aurora low on the horizon, Kp 9 or more for a display high in the sky. Ternopil, 143 km away, needs about Kp 8.
Aurora forecast for nearby cities
More sky and weather
Data: NOAA SWPC (Kp, OVATION), Open-Meteo, GeoNames.