Aurora forecast Churchill
Northern Lights tonight in Churchill, MB
Updated
Good chance tonight: Kp 1.7 forecast, clear skies after 11 pm, look up Churchill is under the auroral oval; even quiet nights can show aurora.
Will you see the northern lights from Churchill, Manitoba, Canada tonight? We combine NOAA's Kp forecast, the OVATION aurora model, cloud cover and the hours of darkness. Times are local (America/Winnipeg).
- Kp now
- 2 quiet, estimated
- Max Kp forecast tonight
- 1.7 quiet
- Kp needed at Churchill
- about 0 geomagnetic latitude 67.1°
- Cloud cover tonight
- 73% average lowest 2%
- Dark sky
- 7:15 pm – 6:50 am Sun 12° below the horizon
- Aurora probability in view now
- 7% NOAA OVATION, 30–90 min ahead
- Moon
- 100% lit Full Moon
Tonight in Churchill
Churchill sits at a geomagnetic latitude of 67.1° N, close to the auroral oval itself, so aurora is possible even on quiet nights (Kp 0–1) whenever the sky is dark and clear. Tonight's NOAA forecast peaks at Kp 1.7 (quiet) during the dark hours, which is enough for Churchill.
Open-Meteo expects about 73% cloud cover on average between 8 pm and 7 am local time, with 2 of 11 dark hours mostly clear (30% cloud or less).
The Moon is 100% illuminated (full moon), bright enough to wash out a faint aurora, so only a stronger display will stand out. For the best view look up: the oval is often overhead or even to the south, from somewhere away from street lights.
Right now NOAA's OVATION model gives up to 7% chance of aurora in the part of the sky visible from Churchill. OVATION is a short-range nowcast (30 to 90 minutes ahead), useful for deciding whether to step outside now.
| Local time | Kp forecast | Cloud cover | Aurora chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 8 pm | 1.7 | 98% | Active, but cloudy |
| Sun 9 pm | 1.7 | 93% | Active, but cloudy |
| Sun 10 pm | 1.3 | 64% | Good |
| Sun 11 pm | 1.3 | 2% | Good |
| Mon 12 am | 1.3 | 3% | Good |
| Mon 1 am | 1.3 | 48% | Good |
| Mon 2 am | 1.3 | 98% | Active, but cloudy |
| Mon 3 am | 1.3 | 98% | Active, but cloudy |
| Mon 4 am | 1.3 | 98% | Active, but cloudy |
| Mon 5 am | 1.3 | 98% | Active, but cloudy |
| Mon 6 am | 1.3 | 100% | Active, but cloudy |
3-day Kp forecast
3 of the next 3 days reach the Kp 0 that Churchill needs. Kp is a global 0–9 index of geomagnetic activity, issued in 3-hour blocks (UTC); NOAA forecasts beyond 24 hours are uncertain, because storms are triggered by solar eruptions that take 1–3 days to arrive.
| Day (UTC) | Max Kp | Level | Enough for Churchill? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | 1.7 | quiet | Yes |
| 2026-10-27 | 1.7 | quiet | Yes |
| 2026-10-28 | 1.3 | quiet | Yes |
Why Churchill sees aurora on quiet nights
The aurora forms in an oval around the geomagnetic pole, which sits in the Canadian Arctic (about 80.8° N, 72.8° W), not at the geographic pole. That is why North American cities see aurora further south than European cities at the same latitude. At Kp 0 the oval's edge is near 66° geomagnetic; each step of Kp pushes it roughly 2° toward the equator.
At 67.1° geomagnetic, Churchill lies under the usual position of the auroral oval: on quiet nights the aurora is often overhead, and during strong storms (Kp 5+) the oval can move equatorward past the city, so the display may then be to the south.
Aurora forecast for nearby cities
More sky and weather
Data: NOAA SWPC (Kp, OVATION), Open-Meteo, GeoNames.