Aurora forecast Kaunas
Northern Lights tonight in Kaunas
Updated
Unlikely tonight (Kp 1.7 forecast; needs about Kp 6 at Kaunas)
Will you see the northern lights from Kaunas, Lithuania tonight? We combine NOAA's Kp forecast, the OVATION aurora model, cloud cover and the hours of darkness. Times are local (Europe/Vilnius).
- Kp now
- 1.7 quiet, estimated
- Max Kp forecast tonight
- 1.7 quiet
- Kp needed at Kaunas
- about 6 geomagnetic latitude 52.8°
- Cloud cover tonight
- 44% average lowest 5%
- Dark sky
- 6:24 pm – 5:59 am Sun 12° below the horizon
- Aurora probability in view now
- 0% NOAA OVATION, 30–90 min ahead
- Moon
- 99% lit Full Moon
Tonight in Kaunas
Kaunas sits at a geomagnetic latitude of 52.8° N, so the aurora usually needs a Kp index of about 6 or higher before it rises above the northern horizon. Tonight's NOAA forecast peaks at Kp 1.7 (quiet) during the dark hours, 4.3 short of what Kaunas needs.
Open-Meteo expects about 44% cloud cover on average between 7 pm and 6 am local time, with 7 of 11 dark hours mostly clear (30% cloud or less).
The Moon is 99% illuminated (full moon), bright enough to wash out a faint aurora, so only a stronger display will stand out. For the best view look north, low on the horizon, from somewhere away from street lights.
Right now NOAA's OVATION model gives up to 0% chance of aurora in the part of the sky visible from Kaunas. OVATION is a short-range nowcast (30 to 90 minutes ahead), useful for deciding whether to step outside now.
| Local time | Kp forecast | Cloud cover | Aurora chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 7 pm | 1.3 | 100% | Unlikely |
| Mon 8 pm | 1.7 | 100% | Unlikely |
| Mon 9 pm | 1.7 | 100% | Unlikely |
| Mon 10 pm | 1.7 | 85% | Unlikely |
| Mon 11 pm | 1.7 | 23% | Unlikely |
| Tue 12 am | 1.7 | 13% | Unlikely |
| Tue 1 am | 1.7 | 9% | Unlikely |
| Tue 2 am | 1.7 | 5% | Unlikely |
| Tue 3 am | 1.7 | 7% | Unlikely |
| Tue 4 am | 1.7 | 17% | Unlikely |
| Tue 5 am | 1.3 | 25% | Unlikely |
3-day Kp forecast
None of the next 3 days reaches the Kp 6 that Kaunas needs. Kp is a global 0–9 index of geomagnetic activity, issued in 3-hour blocks (UTC); NOAA forecasts beyond 24 hours are uncertain, because storms are triggered by solar eruptions that take 1–3 days to arrive.
| Day (UTC) | Max Kp | Level | Enough for Kaunas? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | 1.7 | quiet | No |
| 2026-10-27 | 1.7 | quiet | No |
| 2026-10-28 | 1.7 | quiet | No |
Why Kaunas needs Kp 6
The aurora forms in an oval around the geomagnetic pole, which sits in the Canadian Arctic (about 80.8° N, 72.8° W), not at the geographic pole. That is why the Kp a city needs depends on its geomagnetic rather than its geographic latitude. At Kp 0 the oval's edge is near 66° geomagnetic; each step of Kp pushes it roughly 2° toward the equator.
At 52.8° geomagnetic, Kaunas needs about Kp 6 for aurora low on the horizon, Kp 8 or more for a display high in the sky. Klaipėda, 198 km away, needs about Kp 5.
Aurora forecast for nearby cities
More sky and weather
Data: NOAA SWPC (Kp, OVATION), Open-Meteo, GeoNames.