Aurora forecast Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky
Northern Lights tonight in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky
Updated
Unlikely tonight (Kp 1.7 forecast; needs about Kp 9 at Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky)
Will you see the northern lights from Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Kamchatka, Russia tonight? We combine NOAA's Kp forecast, the OVATION aurora model, cloud cover and the hours of darkness. Times are local (Asia/Kamchatka).
- Kp now
- 1.7 quiet, estimated
- Max Kp forecast tonight
- 1.7 quiet
- Kp needed at Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky
- about 9 geomagnetic latitude 46.8°
- Cloud cover tonight
- 34% average lowest 5%
- Dark sky
- 7:28 pm – 6:58 am Sun 12° below the horizon
- Aurora probability in view now
- 0% NOAA OVATION, 30–90 min ahead
- Moon
- 100% lit Full Moon
Tonight in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky
Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky sits at a geomagnetic latitude of 46.8° N, so the aurora usually needs a Kp index of about 9 or higher before it rises above the northern horizon. Tonight's NOAA forecast peaks at Kp 1.7 (quiet) during the dark hours, 7.3 short of what Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky needs.
Open-Meteo expects about 34% cloud cover on average between 8 pm and 7 am local time, with 6 of 11 dark hours mostly clear (30% cloud or less).
The Moon is 100% illuminated (full moon), bright enough to wash out a faint aurora, so only a stronger display will stand out. For the best view look north, low on the horizon, from somewhere away from street lights.
Right now NOAA's OVATION model gives up to 0% chance of aurora in the part of the sky visible from Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky. OVATION is a short-range nowcast (30 to 90 minutes ahead), useful for deciding whether to step outside now.
| Local time | Kp forecast | Cloud cover | Aurora chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 8 pm | 1.3 | 5% | Unlikely |
| Mon 9 pm | 1.3 | 13% | Unlikely |
| Mon 10 pm | 1.3 | 23% | Unlikely |
| Mon 11 pm | 1.3 | 24% | Unlikely |
| Tue 12 am | 1.3 | 26% | Unlikely |
| Tue 1 am | 1.3 | 31% | Unlikely |
| Tue 2 am | 1.3 | 38% | Unlikely |
| Tue 3 am | 1.3 | 27% | Unlikely |
| Tue 4 am | 1.3 | 41% | Unlikely |
| Tue 5 am | 1.3 | 59% | Unlikely |
| Tue 6 am | 1.7 | 88% | Unlikely |
3-day Kp forecast
None of the next 3 days reaches the Kp 9 that Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky needs. Kp is a global 0–9 index of geomagnetic activity, issued in 3-hour blocks (UTC); NOAA forecasts beyond 24 hours are uncertain, because storms are triggered by solar eruptions that take 1–3 days to arrive.
| Day (UTC) | Max Kp | Level | Enough for Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | 1.7 | quiet | No |
| 2026-10-27 | 1.7 | quiet | No |
| 2026-10-28 | 1.7 | quiet | No |
Why Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky needs Kp 9
The aurora forms in an oval around the geomagnetic pole, which sits in the Canadian Arctic (about 80.8° N, 72.8° W), not at the geographic pole. That is why the Kp a city needs depends on its geomagnetic rather than its geographic latitude. At Kp 0 the oval's edge is near 66° geomagnetic; each step of Kp pushes it roughly 2° toward the equator.
At 46.8° geomagnetic, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky needs about Kp 9 for aurora low on the horizon, Kp 9 or more for a display high in the sky.
More sky and weather
Data: NOAA SWPC (Kp, OVATION), Open-Meteo, GeoNames.