Southern Lights tonight in Warrnambool, VIC

Tonight in Warrnambool

Warrnambool sits at a geomagnetic latitude of 45.7° S, so the aurora usually needs a Kp index of about 9 or higher before it rises above the southern horizon. Tonight's NOAA forecast peaks at Kp 2 (quiet) during the dark hours, 7.0 short of what Warrnambool needs.

Open-Meteo expects about 44% cloud cover on average between 10 pm and 6 am local time, with 3 of 8 dark hours mostly clear (30% cloud or less).

The Moon is 100% illuminated (full moon), bright enough to wash out a faint aurora, so only a stronger display will stand out. For the best view look south, low on the horizon, from somewhere away from street lights.

Right now NOAA's OVATION model gives up to 0% chance of aurora in the part of the sky visible from Warrnambool. OVATION is a short-range nowcast (30 to 90 minutes ahead), useful for deciding whether to step outside now.

3-day Kp forecast

None of the next 3 days reaches the Kp 9 that Warrnambool needs. Kp is a global 0–9 index of geomagnetic activity, issued in 3-hour blocks (UTC); NOAA forecasts beyond 24 hours are uncertain, because storms are triggered by solar eruptions that take 1–3 days to arrive.

Why Warrnambool needs Kp 9

The aurora forms in an oval around the geomagnetic pole, which sits in the Canadian Arctic (about 80.8° N, 72.8° W), not at the geographic pole. That is why the Kp a city needs depends on its geomagnetic rather than its geographic latitude. At Kp 0 the oval's edge is near 66° geomagnetic; each step of Kp pushes it roughly 2° toward the equator.

At 45.7° geomagnetic, Warrnambool needs about Kp 9 for aurora low on the horizon, Kp 9 or more for a display high in the sky. Hobart, 653 km away, needs about Kp 7.

Aurora forecast for nearby cities

• Southern lights Geelong
• Southern lights Frankston East
• Southern lights Launceston
• Southern lights Hobart

More sky and weather

• Aurora forecast (all cities)
• Northern Taurids meteor shower
• Meteor showers
• Weather warnings