Northern Lights tonight in Carlisle

Tonight in Carlisle

Carlisle sits at a geomagnetic latitude of 57.1° N, so the aurora usually needs a Kp index of about 4 or higher before it rises above the northern horizon. Tonight's NOAA forecast peaks at Kp 1.7 (quiet) during the dark hours, 2.3 short of what Carlisle needs.

Open-Meteo expects about 88% cloud cover on average between 1 am and 6 am local time, with no mostly clear hours.

The Moon is 100% illuminated (full moon), bright enough to wash out a faint aurora, so only a stronger display will stand out. For the best view look north, low on the horizon, from somewhere away from street lights.

Right now NOAA's OVATION model gives up to 6% chance of aurora in the part of the sky visible from Carlisle. OVATION is a short-range nowcast (30 to 90 minutes ahead), useful for deciding whether to step outside now.

3-day Kp forecast

None of the next 3 days reaches the Kp 4 that Carlisle needs. Kp is a global 0–9 index of geomagnetic activity, issued in 3-hour blocks (UTC); NOAA forecasts beyond 24 hours are uncertain, because storms are triggered by solar eruptions that take 1–3 days to arrive.

Why Carlisle needs Kp 4

The aurora forms in an oval around the geomagnetic pole, which sits in the Canadian Arctic (about 80.8° N, 72.8° W), not at the geographic pole. That is why the Kp a city needs depends on its geomagnetic rather than its geographic latitude. At Kp 0 the oval's edge is near 66° geomagnetic; each step of Kp pushes it roughly 2° toward the equator.

At 57.1° geomagnetic, Carlisle needs about Kp 4 for aurora low on the horizon, Kp 6 or more for a display high in the sky.

Aurora forecast for nearby cities

• Northern lights Dumfries
• Northern lights Newburn
• Northern lights Stanley
• Northern lights Newcastle upon Tyne
• Northern lights Gateshead
• Northern lights Chester-le-Street
• Northern lights Felling
• Northern lights Durham, England

More sky and weather

• Aurora forecast (all cities)
• Northern Taurids meteor shower
• Meteor showers
• Wildfires near Carlisle
• Weather warnings