Northern Lights tonight in Fort McMurray, AB

Tonight in Fort McMurray

Fort McMurray sits at a geomagnetic latitude of 63.4° N, so the aurora usually needs a Kp index of about 1 or higher before it rises above the northern horizon. Tonight's NOAA forecast peaks at Kp 1.7 (quiet) during the dark hours, which is enough for Fort McMurray.

Open-Meteo expects about 2% cloud cover on average between 8 pm and 8 am local time, with 12 of 12 dark hours mostly clear (30% cloud or less).

The Moon is 100% illuminated (full moon), bright enough to wash out a faint aurora, so only a stronger display will stand out. For the best view look north and overhead, from somewhere away from street lights.

Right now NOAA's OVATION model gives up to 7% chance of aurora in the part of the sky visible from Fort McMurray. OVATION is a short-range nowcast (30 to 90 minutes ahead), useful for deciding whether to step outside now.

3-day Kp forecast

3 of the next 3 days reach the Kp 1 that Fort McMurray needs. Kp is a global 0–9 index of geomagnetic activity, issued in 3-hour blocks (UTC); NOAA forecasts beyond 24 hours are uncertain, because storms are triggered by solar eruptions that take 1–3 days to arrive.

Why Fort McMurray needs Kp 1

The aurora forms in an oval around the geomagnetic pole, which sits in the Canadian Arctic (about 80.8° N, 72.8° W), not at the geographic pole. That is why North American cities see aurora further south than European cities at the same latitude. At Kp 0 the oval's edge is near 66° geomagnetic; each step of Kp pushes it roughly 2° toward the equator.

At 63.4° geomagnetic, Fort McMurray needs about Kp 1 for aurora low on the horizon, Kp 3 or more for a display high in the sky. Fort Smith, NT, 365 km away, needs about Kp 0.

Aurora forecast for nearby cities

• Northern lights Fort Smith, NT
• Northern lights St. Albert
• Northern lights Edmonton
• Northern lights Sherwood Park
• Northern lights Spruce Grove
• Northern lights Lloydminster
• Northern lights Grande Prairie
• Northern lights Red Deer

More sky and weather

• Aurora forecast (all cities)
• Northern Taurids meteor shower
• Meteor showers
• Weather warnings