Northern Lights tonight in Khanty-Mansiysk

Tonight in Khanty-Mansiysk

Khanty-Mansiysk sits at a geomagnetic latitude of 53.4° N, so the aurora usually needs a Kp index of about 5 or higher before it rises above the northern horizon. Tonight's NOAA forecast peaks at Kp 2.3 (quiet) during the dark hours, 2.7 short of what Khanty-Mansiysk needs.

The Moon is 99% illuminated (full moon), bright enough to wash out a faint aurora, so only a stronger display will stand out. For the best view look north, low on the horizon, from somewhere away from street lights.

Right now NOAA's OVATION model gives up to 6% chance of aurora in the part of the sky visible from Khanty-Mansiysk. OVATION is a short-range nowcast (30 to 90 minutes ahead), useful for deciding whether to step outside now.

3-day Kp forecast

None of the next 3 days reaches the Kp 5 that Khanty-Mansiysk needs. Kp is a global 0–9 index of geomagnetic activity, issued in 3-hour blocks (UTC); NOAA forecasts beyond 24 hours are uncertain, because storms are triggered by solar eruptions that take 1–3 days to arrive.

Why Khanty-Mansiysk needs Kp 5

The aurora forms in an oval around the geomagnetic pole, which sits in the Canadian Arctic (about 80.8° N, 72.8° W), not at the geographic pole. That is why the Kp a city needs depends on its geomagnetic rather than its geographic latitude. At Kp 0 the oval's edge is near 66° geomagnetic; each step of Kp pushes it roughly 2° toward the equator.

At 53.4° geomagnetic, Khanty-Mansiysk needs about Kp 5 for aurora low on the horizon, Kp 7 or more for a display high in the sky.

Aurora forecast for nearby cities

• Northern lights Nefteyugansk
• Northern lights Surgut
• Northern lights Tobolsk
• Northern lights Nizhnevartovsk
• Northern lights Noyabrsk
• Northern lights Tyumen
• Northern lights Nizhny Tagil
• Northern lights Kamensk-Ural’skiy

More sky and weather

• Aurora forecast (all cities)
• Northern Taurids meteor shower
• Meteor showers
• Weather warnings