Northern Lights tonight in Surgut

Tonight in Surgut

Surgut sits at a geomagnetic latitude of 53.3° N, so the aurora usually needs a Kp index of about 5 or higher before it rises above the northern horizon. Tonight's NOAA forecast peaks at Kp 1.7 (quiet) during the dark hours, 3.3 short of what Surgut needs.

Open-Meteo expects about 87% cloud cover on average between 7 pm and 6 am local time, with no mostly clear hours.

The Moon is 99% illuminated (full moon), bright enough to wash out a faint aurora, so only a stronger display will stand out. For the best view look north, low on the horizon, from somewhere away from street lights.

Right now NOAA's OVATION model gives up to 0% chance of aurora in the part of the sky visible from Surgut. OVATION is a short-range nowcast (30 to 90 minutes ahead), useful for deciding whether to step outside now.

3-day Kp forecast

None of the next 3 days reaches the Kp 5 that Surgut needs. Kp is a global 0–9 index of geomagnetic activity, issued in 3-hour blocks (UTC); NOAA forecasts beyond 24 hours are uncertain, because storms are triggered by solar eruptions that take 1–3 days to arrive.

Why Surgut needs Kp 5

The aurora forms in an oval around the geomagnetic pole, which sits in the Canadian Arctic (about 80.8° N, 72.8° W), not at the geographic pole. That is why the Kp a city needs depends on its geomagnetic rather than its geographic latitude. At Kp 0 the oval's edge is near 66° geomagnetic; each step of Kp pushes it roughly 2° toward the equator.

At 53.3° geomagnetic, Surgut needs about Kp 5 for aurora low on the horizon, Kp 7 or more for a display high in the sky.

Aurora forecast for nearby cities

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• Northern lights Nizhnevartovsk
• Northern lights Khanty-Mansiysk
• Northern lights Noyabrsk
• Northern lights Tobolsk
• Northern lights Tyumen
• Northern lights Omsk
• Northern lights Petropavl

More sky and weather

• Aurora forecast (all cities)
• Northern Taurids meteor shower
• Meteor showers
• Weather warnings